Zhongzheng Wang hearing on the 17th, the Qingdao Municipal Government, Nanhua Futures, Brilliant Futures hosted on "The Second natural rubber Qingdao International Forum", the industry believes that the world's natural rubber production in the short term there is no breakthrough, and rigidity growing demand, natural rubber prices next year is expected to hit a new high.

Strong domestic demand, a steady increase

President of the Chinese Association of Natural Rubber Sau Yan said, since 2003, China has become the world's largest natural rubber consumer and importer of consumption in recent years from about 10% per year rate of increase. 2009 China's natural rubber (including natural rubber content of 95% or more of the rubber compound included), demand reached 3.39 million tons, ranking first in the world.

Sau Yan said, the situation this year, after entering the second quarter, China's economy has been recovery of growth, though rubber prices fell from frequent product circulation has slowed, but total consumption is still somewhat based on last year growth in our country this year l - consumption of natural rubber in May compared with the same period increased by 28% last year.

"And since the second half, procurement trade is becoming more frequent, is expected to see a rapid growth, China's natural rubber consumption is expected this year may reach 350-360 million tons, corresponding to the amount of natural rubber imports will be about 285-290 ten thousand tons so, over the previous year growth of more than 4 percent. "Sau Yan said.

Fan Rende China Rubber Industry Association, believes that with the establishment of the global basic recovery trend is expected to continue steady Chinese rubber demand will increase next year.

Fan Rende said that the future of China's rubber demand will increase mainly in rubber and rubber product exports increased product consumption rose two aspects. The first half of 2010, Chinese government data showed, in the case of the international financial crisis and the frequent occurrence of trade friction, Chinese rubber industrial output compared to the same period in 2009 is still a large growth in total output will only tire companies increased by 10% , a large number of Chinese exports of rubber products to provide a guarantee. Among them, the tire exports grew 40%. In the rubber consumption, as demand continues to improve Chinese high-speed railway, highway and airport infrastructure, tires, rubber tube with rubber and other related products will continue to increase, it is expected next year there will be more than 20% growth .

Fan Rende said that as the majority of the Chinese market, but also a lot of potential, coupled with the government continues to implement automobiles, motorcycles to the countryside and other activities, will further promote the domestic market demand for a variety of rubber products.

Tight supply of natural rubber prices were buoyant

Shanghai Jin Ying, general manager of Talk On Investment Co. said in recent years of growth in demand for natural rubber, have a great relationship with the rapid development of automobile industry, the "2005 Year - 2010, China's tire tire production and vehicle production in a stable state growth. "for now, the global rubber supply and demand basically maintain a balanced state. However, with the Asia-Pacific region including China and India's rapid growth in demand for cars, rubber prices continued to rise a great chance.

Talk On said that China's rubber consumption to maintain rigid growth, even more than the GDP growth rate. However, the dependence on foreign rubber exceeds 60%, the statistics show that in 2006 to 2010 China's natural rubber imports in the growing year, while production in major producing countries is not optimistic, production has been declining. After 2008, open cut area of ??Thailand and Malaysia has been in decline in the state, from this trend, the global rubber supply and demand balance will be broken, rubber prices higher is not difficult.

Former Director General of the International Rubber Study Group Schmitt on China Securities Journal reporter said that as the supply of natural rubber prices next year is expected to record highs. Schmidt said, "from the current supply and demand and price analysis, the 2010 must be greater than demand, so prices are expected in 2011 demand is still a lot higher than the supply, so I think there will still be new next year rubber prices high."

But Schmidt also reminded that the current natural rubber production in the country of origin appears decline, mainly because most of the 11 countries in Asia in 2005 - during the 2008 began a lot of replanting rubber trees, rubber trees planted in 2005 until 2012 before can not tapping, this situation on the natural rubber production had a significant impact. Schmidt predicted that "in 2012 before the global rubber output will not increase, but after 2012, the availability of natural rubber reversal occurs, Asia 2005 - 2008 period focused on planting rubber trees to make natural rubber production surged again. "